Sulfur Shortage: A Potential Resource Crisis That Could Have Disastrous Consequences



An anticipated shortage of sulfuric acid, a crucial ingredient in our contemporary industrial civilization, may impede the development of green technology and imperil the security of the world's food supply, according to a recent study led by scientists at University College London (UCL).

The study, which was published in The Geographical Journal, predicted that by 2040, the demand for sulfuric acid will rise significantly from "246 to 400 million metric tons" due to improved agricultural production and a global move away from fossil fuels.

The researchers forecast that this will lead to an annual supply shortage of between 100 and 320 million metric tons, or between 40% and 130% of the present supply, depending on how quickly decarbonization occurs.

For the production of phosphorus fertilizers that help produce the world's food as well as the extraction of rare metals from ore that are essential to the transition to a rapidly necessary green economy, such as cobalt and nickel used in high-performance Li-ion batteries, sulfuric acid is a necessary component of modern manufacturing.

In order to reduce sulfur dioxide gas emissions that can result in acid rain, over 80% of the world's sulfur supply is currently in the form of sulfur waste from the desulfurization of crude oil and natural gas. The production of fossil fuels, and consequently the supply of sulfur, would be drastically reduced if the world economy were to decarbonize in response to climate change.

This study, headed by academics at UCL, is the first to pinpoint this crucial problem. According to the authors, in order to meet the increased demand for resources, there will need to be a significant increase in mining activities that harm the ecosystem.

Professor Mark Maslin of UCL's Department of Geography, the study's principal author, said: "Sulfur shortages have happened previously, but this one is unusual since the supply of the element is no longer a waste product of the fossil fuel sector. What we're saying is that as supplies of this affordable, plentiful, and easily accessible form of sulfur run out, demand might be satisfied by a sharp rise in elemental sulfur direct mining. Contrarily, this will be filthy, harmful, expensive, and destructive.

The abundance of sulfate mineral formations in the Earth's crust present an urgent need for research to create low-cost, low-environmental impact techniques of collecting significant amounts of elemental sulfur. In order to lessen the effects of the transition and to prevent the market from being distorted by cheap, unethical manufacturing, the international community should think about subsidizing and regulating sulfur mining.

"Our concern is that the dwindling supply could lead to a transition period when green tech outbids the fertilizer industry for the scarcer, more expensive sulfur supply, creating an issue with food production, particularly in developing countries," said study co-author Dr. Simon Day of the UCL Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction.

Based on past and anticipated demand, the researchers calculated three sulfuric acid demand scenarios from 2021 to 2040, with annual growth rates ranging from 1.8% to 2.4%.

The authors also look into a number of ways that sulfur demand could be decreased as part of the shift to post-fossil fuel economies, including recycling phosphorus in wastewater for the fertilizer industry, increasing lithium battery recycling, or using batteries with lower energy/weight ratios, which require less sulfur during production.

Additionally, they raise important questions about whether investing in alternative production techniques would be financially advantageous given that it is currently impossible to predict how quickly the supply of sulfur as a waste product from oil and gas desulfurization will decline given that the global economy is only now beginning to decarbonize.

However, they come to the conclusion that by acknowledging the sulfur threat now, national and international policies may be formed to regulate future demand, boost resource recycling, and develop substitute, affordable supply.

Citation: Mark Maslin, Livia Van Heerde, and Simon Day, "Sulfur: A Potential Resource Crisis that Could Suppress Green Technology and Threaten Food Security as the World Decarbonizes," The Geographical Journal, August 21, 2022.

By UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON 

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