It’s Only Going To Get Hotter: Scientists Forecast Rising Temperatures and More Frequent Heatwaves



The 19th of July, when temperatures surpassed 40 degrees Celsius, was the hottest day ever recorded in the United Kingdom (about 104 degrees Fahrenheit). According to climate researchers, the heat wave represents a sample of what British citizens might expect from summer weather in 2050. More than a third of the country is currently experiencing excessive heat in both Europe and the United States.

The temperatures are similar to a heat wave that occurred in late June of last year and caused approximately 1,500 fatalities. It also caused average temperatures in the US and Canada to more than quadruple.                                                           
Will temperatures rise further and will there be more regular extreme heat events?

Yes, according to the most recent estimate of human-caused emissions and atmospheric circulation patterns that contributed to the 2021 heat wave in North America. The research, which was just published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, may also help to explain the current heat wave in the United Kingdom.

Models show that the likelihood of severe heat wave episodes will increase by more than 30% in the coming years, supporting the study team's conclusion that greenhouse gases have historically been the primary contributor to rising temperatures and would likely remain so in the future. Their data indicate that the main cause of this elevated probability is greenhouse gases.

A green vector denotes a jetstream, whereas shading represents anomalies in surface air temperature (a narrow band of very strong westerly air currents near the altitude of the tropopause). The North Pacific and Arctic anomalous circulations are linked to the heatwave, according to two blue vectors. Thanks to Jiayu Zheng

Lead author Chunzai Wang, a researcher in the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory and director of the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography at the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, said: "An extraordinary and unprecedented heat wave swept western North America in late June of 2021, resulting in hundreds of deaths and a massive die-off of sea creatures off the coast as well as horrific wildfires" (CAS).

The physical processes of internal variability, such atmospheric circulation patterns, and external forcing, like human greenhouse gases, were both studied in this research.

Surface air temperatures and air flow are influenced by atmospheric circulation patterns, which can change as a result of the Earth's rotation, internal atmospheric variability, and solar-induced warming. Both the daily weather and the long-term trends that make up the climate are caused by these combinations. Three atmospheric circulation patterns—the North Pacific pattern, the Arctic-Pacific Canada pattern, and the North America pattern—that co-occurred during the 2021 heat wave were identified by the researchers using observational data.

The North America pattern coincided with the heat wave's declining and eastward motions, whereas the North Pacific pattern and the Arctic-Pacific Canada pattern happened during the heat wave's development and maturity phases, according to Wang. This shows that the North Pacific and the Arctic are where the heat wave originated, and the North American trend is what drove it south.

To what extent, then, was the 2021 event influenced by human activity? Atmospheric circulation patterns might co-occur, and they have in the past, without producing an exceptionally hot spell of weather. The Detection Attribution Model Comparison models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 were specifically used by Wang and his colleagues. These models have been curated, tested, and evaluated internationally by the World Climate Research Programme (CMIP6).

According to the CMIP6 models, "we observed that it is likely that greenhouse gas-induced global warming effects these three atmospheric circulation pattern variabilities, which in turn led to a more extreme heat wave occurrence," said Wang. The likelihood of significant heat waves occurring will rise if adequate action is not done, which will have a negative influence on the ecological balance as well as long-term social and economic growth.

By INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 

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