Wildfire, Drought, and Insects: Climate Change Increases Risks of Tree Death



It seems that planting trees is typically a good thing for the environment. Since trees absorb carbon dioxide, they partially balance the emissions that cause climate change.

However, if a forest fire breaks out, all of the carbon stored in the world's trees and forests might be burned away and released back into the atmosphere. When trees perish from drought or insect damage, they also stop removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

According to recent research published in the journal Ecology Letters, it is becoming more likely that these dangers will affect forests across the country, making it considerably riskier to rely on forests to absorb carbon emissions.

According to William Anderegg, research main author and associate professor at the University of Utah School of Biological Sciences, "U.S. woods could look significantly different by the end of the century." "Serious and frequent fires and other disturbances have a significant influence on our environments. Due to these disturbances, we might lose some of the Western United States' forests, but a lot will rely on how soon we address climate change.

The researchers projected how those risks may rise over the course of the 21st century by simulating the probability of tree loss from fire, climate stress (heat and/or drought), and insect damage for forests throughout the United States.

According to the simulations, depending on the various carbon emission scenarios, the danger of forest fires in the United States increasing by four to fourteen times by 2099. Over the same period, the chances of insect and tree mortality brought on by climatic stress may roughly treble.

But in those same models, lessening the severity of climate change had a significant impact on the amount of forest die-off caused by fire, drought, and insects.

These three significant disturbances in the United States will be amplified by climate change, according to Anderegg. "Over the past few years, we've experienced terrible fire seasons with increasing severity. We anticipate that all three of these will have the greatest impact on the western United States. Additionally, they are slightly linked. A lot of fires, tree mortality from climate change, and bug outbreaks typically result during exceptionally hot and dry years. But this is also a chance for us. Rapid action on climate change can help maintain the health of our forests and landscapes.

The study, which was funded by the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the David and Lucille Packard Foundation, and Microsoft's AI for Earth, was published in Ecology Letters.

By UNIVERSITY OF UTAH 

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