Space Rocket Debris Could Have Disastrous Consequences – However, There Is a Solution

Governments may face fatal repercussions if they do nothing about space rocket debris.

In the next ten years, there is a six to ten percent possibility that re-entering rocket stages that have been abandoned during space flights would gravely harm or kill a human, according to recent University of British Columbia research.

Researchers claim that governments must unite and pass laws requiring rocket stages to be safely guided back to Earth after use. This might increase the price of a launch, but it might also save lives.

Is it acceptable to consider the loss of human life as just a necessary evil, or should we try to prevent it whenever possible? The key takeaway here is that we can mitigate this danger, according to the primary author and professor of political science at UBC, Dr. Michael Byers.

To launch items into space, such satellites, rockets are employed, some of which are frequently left in orbit. If their orbit is low enough, these abandoned rocket stages may conduct an uncontrolled re-entry into the atmosphere. The majority of the debris will burn up in the sky, but there may still be dangerous pieces that fall to Earth.

In their study published in Nature Astronomy, the researchers looked at more than 30 years' worth of information from a public satellite catalog and calculated the risk to human life over the next 10 years, taking into account the corresponding rate of uncontrolled rocket body re-entries, their orbits, and information on the human population.

Using two independent techniques, they discovered that present procedures have a six to ten percent likelihood of at least one fatality over the following ten years if each re-entry disperses hazardous debris over an area that is on average 10 meters squared. Dr. Byers claims that while the calculations take into account the possibility of one or more casualties for those on the ground, they do not account for the worst-case situations, such as a piece of debris hitting an airliner while it is in the air.

They also discovered that, despite the majority of space-faring countries being in the north, the risk is disproportionately borne by the global south, with rocket bodies roughly three times more likely to land near the latitudes of Jakarta, Dhaka, and Lagos than those of New York, Beijing, or Moscow. The dispersion of orbits utilized to launch satellites is to blame for this.

Although the risk to any one person is extremely low, the authors point out that hazardous space debris striking the surface of the Earth is not unheard of. One such instance involved a 12-meter-long pipe from a Long March 5B rocket that struck a village in the Ivory Coast in 2020 and caused structural damage to buildings. According to co-author Dr. Aaron Boley, an associate professor in the department of physics and astronomy, the number of space launches is also rising.

"Risks have so far been assessed on a launch-by-launch basis, giving consumers the impression that the risk is so negligible that it can be safely disregarded. However, the overall danger is not negligible. Although there haven't been any known casualties and no mass casualty incident, should we wait till then to take action—especially when it involves human life—or should we try to prevent it?

There is now technology and mission design that can largely eliminate this risk, such as engines that can re-ignite and extra fuel to safely guide the rocket bodies to remote oceanic locations. However, Dr. Byers notes that there are currently no multilateral agreements requiring businesses to implement these adjustments and that these steps are expensive.

Examples of such global cooperation, according to Dr. Byers, include the compulsory switch from single to double hulls on oil tankers in the wake of the Exxon Valdez spill and the phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons in the 1980s to preserve the ozone layer. "Both required some investment to change practice, but there was a widespread desire to do so in reaction to fresh scientific research, and in both cases they were total successes. There is no justification for waiting to take action on this matter as what we're proposing is completely achievable.

According to co-author Ewan Wright, a doctorate student in interdisciplinary studies, future research directions will involve expanding the models, which at this time presume that all rocket bodies are the same size. "While some weigh about as much as a typical washing machine, others can weigh up to 20 tonnes. The amount of material that burns up in the atmosphere is impacted by this, thus include this information would enhance our models. Although little is known about how rocket bodies burn up, it is crucial to comprehend the "casualty area" of lethal debris that hits the ground.

By UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA