Risk of volcano catastrophe 'a roll of the dice'

According to specialists from the University of Birmingham and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, the world is "woefully underprepared" for a major volcanic eruption and its expected effects on global supply networks, the climate, and food.

They claim that there is a "widespread misperception" that the likelihood of big eruptions is minimal and call the government's present lack of investment in monitoring and mitigating possible volcano disasters "reckless" in a paper that was published in the journal Nature.

The researchers contend that protective measures against volcanic destruction can be adopted, including better surveillance, enhanced public awareness, and magma management, and the funding required to do so is long overdue.

"According to information gleaned from ice cores on the frequency of eruptions over a long period of time, there is a one-in-six possibility that a magnitude seven explosion will occur within the next 100 years. That's a chance throw, "said Dr. Lara Mani, an expert in global risk and co-author of the report at CSER.

In the distant past, "Such enormous eruptions have brought about sudden climatic change and the demise of civilizations."

Mani likens the threat of a massive eruption to that of an asteroid hitting Earth that is 1 km wide. Similar climatic effects would result from such occurrences, but the probability of a volcanic disaster is hundreds of times greater than the probability of an asteroid or comet crash.

"Though asteroid threats receive hundreds of millions of dollars year, there is a severe lack of global funding and cooperation for volcano preparedness," Mani said. "This needs to change immediately. Volcanoes offer a significant risk to our societies, which we vastly underestimate."

Tonga experienced the biggest instrumentally recorded eruption in January. The scientists contend that catastrophic global shock waves might have resulted if it had lasted longer, spewed more ash and gas, or happened near vital infrastructure, like the Mediterranean.

Mani stated that the Tonga eruption "has to be considered as a wake-up call" because it was the volcanic equivalent of an asteroid narrowly missing the Earth.

The CSER specialists point to current research that uses ancient ice samples to analyze evidence of sulfur spikes to determine the frequency of big eruptions. Twice as frequently as previously believed, an eruption ten to one hundred times larger than the Tonga blast happens once every 625 years.

According to co-author Dr. Mike Cassidy, a volcanologist and visiting CSER researcher who is currently located at the University of Birmingham, "the last magnitude seven eruption was in 1815 in Indonesia."

"In what was known as the year without summer," he added, "an estimated 100,000 people died locally, and global temperatures dropped by an average of one degree, triggering major crop failures that led to starvation, violent uprisings, and epidemics."

"Today's globe has an eight-fold increase in population and a fortyfold increase in trade. We might be even more susceptible to the shocks of a large eruption due to our intricate global networks."

Experts estimate that a large-magnitude eruption would cause financial damages in the multi-trillions, on a par with a pandemic.

Mani and Cassidy lay forth the actions they believe are necessary to foresee and control the potential for a planet-altering eruption as well as to lessen the effects of smaller, more frequent eruptions.

These include pinpointing dangers with greater accuracy. The locations of only a small number of the 97 eruptions over the past 60,000 years that the "Volcano Explosivity Index" rated as being of enormous scale are known. This implies that there may be dozens of potentially extremely destructive volcanoes scattered over the globe that civilization is unaware of.

Due to a dearth of research into marine and lake cores, particularly in understudied locations like Southeast Asia, Cassidy warned that "we may not be aware of even relatively recent eruptions." Volcanoes are capable of unexpected and spectacular destruction even when inactive for a long time.

The CSER specialists assert that monitoring needs to be strengthened. Seismometers have only been present near 27% of eruptions since 1950, and barely a third of that data has been included into the global database for "volcanic unrest."

For more than 20 years, Mani stated, "volcanologists have called for a dedicated volcano-monitoring satellite." For quick imagery, we occasionally have to rely on the kindness of private satellite firms.

The scientists also advocate for more investigation into "geoengineering" of volcanoes. This calls for the research of strategies to deal with aerosols produced by a large eruption that could trigger a "volcanic winter." Additionally, they assert that research into managing magma pockets beneath active volcanoes needs to be done.

Addition Mani "It may seem impossible to directly influence volcanic behavior, but before the establishment of the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office in 2016, it was also impossible to deflect asteroids. Significant threats exist from a large eruption that destroys world society. Simply foolish is the current underinvestment in mitigating this risk."

University of Cambridge