Experts in Marine and Coastal Systems Predict Top 15 Emerging Impacts on Ocean Biodiversity Over Next Decade



Among the 15 challenges that experts say we need to solve right now are deep sea lithium mining, overfishing of deeper-water species, and the unanticipated ocean effects of land-based wildfires.

Over the next ten years, a group of worldwide specialists has identified 15 concerns that they predict will have a substantial influence on marine and coastal biodiversity.

They used a method known as "horizon scanning," which aims to find problems that are not yet receiving much attention but are expected to become crucial within the next ten years. Their objective is to increase awareness of these challenges and promote immediate investment in a thorough analysis of them. They also seek to reform policies before the problems have a significant negative impact on biodiversity.

The list of problems also includes a "empty" zone near the equator as animals migrate away from this warming part of the ocean, the effects of new biodegradable materials on the marine environment, and the consequences of wildfires on coastal ecosystems.

Dr. James Herbert-Read, a professor in the Department of Zoology at the University of Cambridge and one of the paper's co-first authors, said that marine and coastal ecosystems face a wide range of new problems that are little understood or recognized and that all have the potential to have an impact on biodiversity.

To safeguard our marine and coastal habitats, he continued, "By flagging future challenges, we're pointing to where adjustments must be taken now - both in monitoring and legislation."

Thirty marine and coastal system professionals from 11 northern and southern hemisphere nations participated in the horizon scan. Their backgrounds ranged from scientists to decision-makers. On July 7, 2022, the findings were released in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution.

The use of ocean resources is related to a number of the problems found. For instance, deep sea "brine pools" are distinct marine habitats that support a variety of species and have high lithium salt concentrations. The experts issue a warning that these habitats might be in danger due to the increased demand for lithium for electric car batteries. They need regulations to guarantee that biodiversity is evaluated before deep-sea brine pools are used for mining.

Although overfishing is an urgent issue, the horizon scan looked forward to potential future events. The authors speculate that fishing may soon shift to the deeper mesopelagic zone (200–1,000 meters/650–3300 feet), where fish that are unfit for human eating might be sold to feed fish farms.

According to Dr. Ann Thornton, a co-first author on the study from the Department of Zoology at the University of Cambridge, "there are some areas where we believe immediate changes could prevent significant problems arising over the next decade." One such instance is overfishing in the mesopelagic zone of the ocean.

Because these species represent an ocean pump that pulls carbon from our atmosphere, she continued, "Curbing this will not only end overexploitation of certain fish stocks, but lessen the disturbance of carbon cycle in the ocean."

The paper also discusses how new biodegradable materials can affect the ocean. Some of these substances are more harmful to aquatic life than conventional plastics.

Governments are promoting the use of biodegradable materials, but we are unsure of the potential effects these products may have on marine life, according to Herbert-Read.

The nutritious value of fish is decreasing as a result of climate change, the scientists further caution. Since cold-water fish species often synthesize essential fatty acids, when ocean temperatures rise due to climate change, less of these nutrient-rich molecules are created. Such modifications could affect not just marine life but also human health.

Thankfully, not all of the anticipated effects are detrimental. The development of new technologies, like soft robotics and improved underwater tracking systems, according to the experts, will allow researchers to understand more about marine species and their distribution. The creation of more effective marine protected zones will then be guided by this. The scientists do stress that before these technologies are widely used, their effects on biodiversity must first be evaluated.

The early detection of these problems and their potential effects on marine and coastal biodiversity, according to Herbert-Read, will help researchers, conservationists, resource managers, legislators, and the general public address the problems confronting marine ecosystems.

This study concentrated on fewer well-known emergent challenges that may soon have large effects on marine and coastal ecosystems, rather than the numerous well-known issues impacting ocean biodiversity, such as pollution, ocean acidification, and climate change.

Researchers from the Department of Zoology have previously utilized this horizon scanning approach to pinpoint problems that have since gained attention. For instance, a scan conducted in 2009 provided an early warning that microplastics would become a significant concern in marine settings.

2021-2030 has been designated as the "UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development" by the United Nations. Additionally, in late 2022, the fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity will bring an end to discussions for a global framework for biodiversity. The purpose is to halt and stop the loss of biodiversity and set objectives for successful outcomes by 2050.

By UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

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