Belief in Conspiracy Theories May Not Be Increasing After All, Surveys Suggest



Consider the JFK assassination or the lengthy history of UFO sightings to see that conspiracy theories are hardly a new ailment. However, the internet is sometimes credited for ushering in a "post-truth" era, with social media in particular facilitating the spread of rumors that become viral.

Whether or if something is genuinely true is a different issue, one that is important and warrants thought.

Despite what many journalists, academics, and politicians claim, there isn't much concrete proof to date that conspiracy theories are becoming more and more common.

A recent set of polls that were done in the United States and six European nations came to that result. Contrary to popular belief, the new study contends that conspiracy theories are a "more durable and universal element of human civilization."

It's not all terrible news, either. The good news is that it doesn't appear that online news sources or social media are directly responsible. It seems conspiracy theories are not necessarily drawing more adherents than they did in the past, despite the fact that they may transmit dangerously false information.

Researchers found no indication of rising confidence in conspiracy theories in the modern era when they analyzed national polls on both recent and historical conspiracy ideas.

According to political scientist Adam Enders of the University of Louisville, "we do not find that conspiracism has risen over time, despite popular predictions that America is falling into the conspiracy theory rabbit hole into a condition of post-truth."

"We examine beliefs in dozens of particular conspiracy theories, perceptions of who is likely to be involved in conspiracy theories, and the general propensity to interpret events and circumstances as the result of conspiracy theories - in no case do we observe an average increase in conspiracy beliefs," the study states.

The first series of polls contrasted Americans' perceptions of conspiracy theories that had been for less than a year, like those surrounding COVID-19, with those that had existed for longer, like those around the Pearl Harbor assault.
Researchers looked for evidence of rising beliefs in five COVID-19 conspiracies but found none in surveys conducted in March 2020, June of that year, and May 2021.

In actuality, a number of these COVID-19 conspiracies lost favor over time, such as the theory that Bill Gates is responsible for the worldwide epidemic.

Another contemporary conspiracy hypothesis investigated by academics is QAnon. In the US, 5% of respondents in August 2019 stated they were QAnon believers.

Though it might seem modest, researchers found that up to 50% of Americans believed in QAnon conspiracy theories, such as the idea of a "deep state" or elite sex traffickers, when they answered less direct questions.

Interestingly, despite the worldwide epidemic and the 2020 US election season, these opinions mostly remained the same.

Although the baseline levels of confidence in these theories are worrying on a normative level, the authors state that they have never seen evidence of significant long-term rises.
Only seven of the 46 conspiracy theories reviewed by researchers saw a rise in acceptance in the US over time, and none of them contained QAnon or COVID-19.

The results imply that despite the internet serving as a megaphone for false information, "newer" conspiracy theories are not drawing more followers than they did in the past.

Surveys performed in the US between 2016 and 2018 indicated no indication of a rise in conspiracy theories, such as alien cover-ups, when compared to surveys from Europe.

These results support the current study's conclusion that the internet is "less conducive to conspiracy theories than is generally imagined," which is in line with findings from other recent research.

According to the new study's authors, "our findings also comport with studies demonstrating that online conspiracy theories, "infodemics," and echo chambers may not be as pervasive or powerful as sometimes claimed, and are reflective of studies arguing that people are not engaging with or sharing conspiracy theories online as much as sometimes assumed."

The findings instead point to a false perception that conspiracy theories are growing more prevalent as a result of greater public knowledge of them. In actuality, the acceptance of these ideas over time remained mostly stable.

If so, the notion of a "post-truth" world has to be reexamined. Fighting disinformation is crucial for democracy and for the general welfare, but there isn't much we can do to influence public opinion until we understand where this bogus news comes from and how it persuades people.

Although placing the blame on social media may seem reasonable, this argument is as unsupported by facts as any conspiracy theory.

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